Rarity & Odds
Every tier, every probability, and the payout economics behind them — published before you mint, not after.
Most blind-box collections publish a prize list and stay quiet about probability. That asks you to buy on vibes. This page gives you the full distribution for all four clubs, the expected value of each box, and the payout ratio of the collection as a whole — so you can decide with numbers instead of hope.
Grand-prize odds by club
Each club has exactly one grand prize: its named car. Because supply tightens as the tier rises, higher clubs offer both better odds and a bigger car — the price ladder buys you both, not one at the expense of the other.
| Club | Mint price | Supply | Grand prize | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honda Club | $10 | 5,000 | Honda City | 1 in 5,000 · 0.020% |
| Porsche 718 Club | $100 | 3,000 | Porsche 718 | 1 in 3,000 · 0.033% |
| Porsche 911 Club | $500 | 2,000 | Porsche 911 | 1 in 2,000 · 0.050% |
| Lambo Club | $1,000 | 1,000 | Lamborghini | 1 in 1,000 · 0.100% |
The five tiers
Every club uses the same five-tier structure. Only the prize values scale with the club.
| Tier | Share of club supply | What it pays |
|---|---|---|
| Grand | 1 box | The club's named car |
| Gold | 2% | USDT prize scaled to the club |
| Silver | 10% | Smaller USDT prize plus a boosted $MOONX airdrop |
| Bronze | 30% | ×2 $MOONX airdrop multiplier |
| Standard | ~58% | Base $MOONX airdrop |
There is no empty outcome. Even Standard tier — the majority of every club — pays a base $MOONX airdrop from the 23,500,000 token allocation reserved for T-BOX holders. You are always choosing between rewards, never between a reward and nothing.
Full distribution per club
Exact box counts and prize values at each tier:
| Club | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Standard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honda ($10) | 100 boxes · $25 each | 500 boxes · $6 each | 1,500 boxes · ×2 airdrop | 2,899 boxes · base airdrop |
| Porsche 718 ($100) | 60 boxes · $800 each | 300 boxes · $155 each | 900 boxes · ×2 airdrop | 1,739 boxes · base airdrop |
| Porsche 911 ($500) | 40 boxes · $5,000 each | 200 boxes · $1,100 each | 600 boxes · ×2 airdrop | 1,159 boxes · base airdrop |
| Lambo ($1,000) | 20 boxes · $6,000 each | 100 boxes · $1,300 each | 300 boxes · ×2 airdrop | 579 boxes · base airdrop |
Expected value per box
Expected value is the average cash-equivalent return across all outcomes in a club, including the car. It is not what any single box pays — it is what the whole club pays divided by its supply.
| Club | Mint price | Cash prizes | Car (indicative) | Total prize pool | EV per box | Payout ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honda | $10 | $5,500 | ~$25,000 | $30,500 | $6.10 | 61% |
| Porsche 718 | $100 | $94,500 | ~$70,000 | $164,500 | $54.83 | 55% |
| Porsche 911 | $500 | $420,000 | ~$130,000 | $550,000 | $275.00 | 55% |
| Lambo | $1,000 | $250,000 | ~$300,000 | $550,000 | $550.00 | 55% |
$MOONX airdrops sit on top of every figure above. Because they are paid from the token allocation rather than from mint proceeds, they do not reduce the cash prize pool — they add to what each tier is actually worth.
Collection economics
The four clubs gross $2,350,000 at full mint. Total prizes across the collection come to $1,295,000 — a payout ratio of 55.1%.
Why prizes are funded collection-wide
Honda Club alone grosses $50,000. A Honda City costs roughly half of that, which would make the club unsustainable on its own proceeds. So prizes are funded from the collection pool rather than club by club: all four vehicles together are ~22% of total gross, which is comfortable. This is what lets the entry tier stay at $10 while still carrying a real car as its ceiling.
Odds and box counts are fixed by supply and published here before minting. Vehicle values are indicative market estimates — the exact model, specification and delivery jurisdiction are confirmed at the unboxing date, and MetaTreasure may offer a cash-equivalent alternative. Expected value is a statistical average across a whole club, not a prediction for your box. Most boxes pay Standard tier.
Fairness and verification
- Fixed supply, fixed counts. Every tier's box count is a fixed number against a capped supply. No tier can be diluted after minting opens.
- Resolution at unboxing, not at mint. Rarity is assigned collection-wide on the announced unboxing date — the same moment for everyone, so no one mints into a known outcome.
- On-chain record. TreasureBox NFTs and their assigned rarity live on BNB Chain at contract 0xfB0E714128fC6E94acbfD771d9a35d808A7a81E5 and can be inspected by anyone.
- Real-world claims run through MetaTreasure. Physical delivery requires identity and logistics handled off-chain — see Gameplay for what that involves.